Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.

The War Is Over for Israel, but the Accounting Has Yet to Begin

Will voters settle the score with Bibi—or double down on him?

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.

As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

If Trump wants peace, he must block Israel’s annexationist policies. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.

The Desperate Search for Gaza Peacekeepers

Most of the world seems very eager to avoid joining the territory’s international stabilization force.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.

Sharaa’s Democratic Test

The Syrian president, who visits the White House on Monday, just oversaw his first election.

Dispatch
Fin de Pencier
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.

The Iran Challenge Is Big. The Solution Must Be Bigger.

A regional nuclear condominium can bring security and prosperity to all sides of the Gulf.

Argument
Ernest J. Moniz
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.

The U.N. Must Help Consolidate Gaza Peace

Trump should seek a Security Council resolution to bolster his peace plan and preempt spoilers.

Argument
Frank Lowenstein, Liam Hamama

Israel-Hamas War

Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.
Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.

What We Can Learn From Trump’s Success in Gaza

In diplomacy, style now matters just as much as substance. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Suzanne Nossel
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.

Two Ways Oct. 7 Changed Israel and One Way It Didn’t

The impact will be felt for years, even if Trump’s peace plan succeeds.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.

Can Palestinians Trust Donald Trump?

Only U.S. pressure will ensure that Israel honors the Gaza cease-fire.

Analysis
Omar H. Rahman
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.

Two Years After Oct. 7, a Trail of What-Ifs

Decisions made early on set the path for a devastating war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi

Israel and Hezbollah

Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.
Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.

Hezbollah Is Weak Enough for Lebanon to Finally Disarm It

The government and army are taking back their own country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji

Regional Dynamics

President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.
President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.

America’s Accidental New Military Ally

The Trump administration has made an unprecedentedly sloppy security guarantee to Qatar.

Analysis
Bilal Y. Saab
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.

Ankara’s New Syrian Headache

Toppling Assad didn’t solve Turkey’s problems—it made them worse.

Analysis
Gonul Tol
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.

Can the Gulf Rebuild the Middle East?

Despite many threats, the Gulf states have emerged with structural advantages that could reshape the region.

Analysis
Rob Geist Pinfold
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.

Buying the Hatchet

How arms deals are helping Sharaa to make up with Moscow.

Analysis
Ahmad Sharawi

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.

How Washington’s Israel-Palestine Peace Process Theology Failed Again and Again

Trump’s plan is just the latest example.

Review
Khaled Elgindy

Latest Stories

Smoke rises over Tehran.
Smoke rises over Tehran.

Intelligence Window Might Have Been a Factor in Timing of Israeli Attack on Iran

Strategic concerns and domestic politics also played a role.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes his way to the stage during the 2016 Genesis Prize ceremony.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes his way to the stage during the 2016 Genesis Prize ceremony.

Netanyahu’s Future in the Balance

Can victory over Iran secure the Israeli leader’s legacy?

Argument
Shalom Lipner
President Donald Trump watches the 250th birthday parade of the U.S. Army in Washington, D.C.
President Donald Trump watches the 250th birthday parade of the U.S. Army in Washington, D.C.

Democrats Should Reclaim the Anti-War Mantle From Trump

By backing Israel’s attack on Iran, Trump violated his anti-war pledge. Will his opponents take advantage of it?

Shadow Government
Matthew Duss
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.

Can the Gulf’s Iran Policy Survive the War?

Israel and the Gulf have rival visions for Iran’s role in the region. Now Washington has to pick one.

Analysis
Mona Yacoubian
Two Israeli flags stand near a damaged building.
Two Israeli flags stand near a damaged building.

Does Israel Have an Exit Strategy?

Netanyahu might be bumbling into a war of attrition with Iran. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
A wide view shows the skyline of Tehran at night beneath a dark sky. A massive plume of black smoke rises from an area crowded with buildings, which can be seen by their light in the dark.
A wide view shows the skyline of Tehran at night beneath a dark sky. A massive plume of black smoke rises from an area crowded with buildings, which can be seen by their light in the dark.

Israel’s Attacks Make an Iranian Bomb More Likely

Iran’s nuclear program is damaged, but its determination is heightened.

Analysis
Eric Brewer
Debris of a missile fired from Iran toward Israel leaves a trail in the night sky over Jerusalem after being intercepted.
Debris of a missile fired from Iran toward Israel leaves a trail in the night sky over Jerusalem after being intercepted.

How the Israel-Iran War Might End

Scenarios include an Iranian defeat, an Israeli retreat—or an expanded regional conflict. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Iselin Brady, Daniel Byman
The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, attends a military parade in Tehran on April 17, 2024.
The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, attends a military parade in Tehran on April 17, 2024.

Iran’s Military Just Lost Its ‘Brain Trust’

Israeli strikes killed several of Iran’s top military commanders.

Q&A
John Haltiwanger
A view of the night sky in Tehran, Iran.
A view of the night sky in Tehran, Iran.

A Victory for Israel

Israel’s strikes keep Iran out of the nuclear club.

Argument
Matthew Kroenig
The view from a living room of a residential building that was destroyed in an attack by Israel in Tehran, Iran.
The view from a living room of a residential building that was destroyed in an attack by Israel in Tehran, Iran.

Nuclear Claims Are a Smoke Screen for Hopes of Toppling Iran

The Israeli strikes aren’t about facilities or centrifuges, but regime change.

Argument
Jeffrey Lewis
A worker in a gray uniform and white hardhat walks on pipelines.
A worker in a gray uniform and white hardhat walks on pipelines.

Oil Prices Spike After Israeli Attacks on Iran

Traders fear a wider conflict, even if oil facilities haven’t been targeted yet.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
People gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike.
People gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike.

Iran’s Options for Retaliating Against Israel Have Narrowed

Its proxies are weakened, and its arsenals have been degraded.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
Israel Katz and Benjamin Netanyahu are sitting down at an event.
Israel Katz and Benjamin Netanyahu are sitting down at an event.

Israel Is Going for the Death Blow on Iran

The Israeli attack on Iran is about much more than its nuclear program.

Argument
Steven A. Cook
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a visit to the Palmachim air base near Rishon LeZion, Israel, on July 5, 2023.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a visit to the Palmachim air base near Rishon LeZion, Israel, on July 5, 2023.

Israel Strikes Iran

The attack comes after a frenzy of speculation that Israel was planning to take military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Report
FP Staff
Pro-Palestinian activists attend a demonstration called by the BDS movement and numerous unions in Massy, near Paris.
Pro-Palestinian activists attend a demonstration called by the BDS movement and numerous unions in Massy, near Paris.

Is Israel Becoming a Pariah State?

Stalwart allies are distancing themselves, including Germany and the United Kingdom.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump walk through the West Wing Colonnade on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump walk through the West Wing Colonnade on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C.

Trump and Netanyahu Were Marching in Lockstep—Until They Weren’t

For the first time in decades, a U.S. president is veering away from Israel.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller, Lauren Morganbesser
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