Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.

The War Is Over for Israel, but the Accounting Has Yet to Begin

Will voters settle the score with Bibi—or double down on him?

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.

As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

If Trump wants peace, he must block Israel’s annexationist policies. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.

The Desperate Search for Gaza Peacekeepers

Most of the world seems very eager to avoid joining the territory’s international stabilization force.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.

Sharaa’s Democratic Test

The Syrian president, who visits the White House on Monday, just oversaw his first election.

Dispatch
Fin de Pencier
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.

The Iran Challenge Is Big. The Solution Must Be Bigger.

A regional nuclear condominium can bring security and prosperity to all sides of the Gulf.

Argument
Ernest J. Moniz
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.

The U.N. Must Help Consolidate Gaza Peace

Trump should seek a Security Council resolution to bolster his peace plan and preempt spoilers.

Argument
Frank Lowenstein, Liam Hamama

Israel-Hamas War

Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.
Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.

What We Can Learn From Trump’s Success in Gaza

In diplomacy, style now matters just as much as substance. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Suzanne Nossel
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.

Two Ways Oct. 7 Changed Israel and One Way It Didn’t

The impact will be felt for years, even if Trump’s peace plan succeeds.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.

Can Palestinians Trust Donald Trump?

Only U.S. pressure will ensure that Israel honors the Gaza cease-fire.

Analysis
Omar H. Rahman
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.

Two Years After Oct. 7, a Trail of What-Ifs

Decisions made early on set the path for a devastating war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi

Israel and Hezbollah

Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.
Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.

Hezbollah Is Weak Enough for Lebanon to Finally Disarm It

The government and army are taking back their own country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji

Regional Dynamics

President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.
President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.

America’s Accidental New Military Ally

The Trump administration has made an unprecedentedly sloppy security guarantee to Qatar.

Analysis
Bilal Y. Saab
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.

Ankara’s New Syrian Headache

Toppling Assad didn’t solve Turkey’s problems—it made them worse.

Analysis
Gonul Tol
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.

Can the Gulf Rebuild the Middle East?

Despite many threats, the Gulf states have emerged with structural advantages that could reshape the region.

Analysis
Rob Geist Pinfold
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.

Buying the Hatchet

How arms deals are helping Sharaa to make up with Moscow.

Analysis
Ahmad Sharawi

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.

How Washington’s Israel-Palestine Peace Process Theology Failed Again and Again

Trump’s plan is just the latest example.

Review
Khaled Elgindy

Latest Stories

A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.
A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.

How Settler Violence Serves Israel’s Interests

Attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have surged since Oct. 7, 2023.

Analysis
Yagil Levy
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.

What Is Iran Trying to Prove?

Leaders in Tehran believe that Washington will restrain Israel in order to prevent a regional conflagration.

Analysis
Vali Nasr
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.

More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States

What to expect after the war in Gaza ends.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.

Is the Israel-Hamas War Closer to Its Beginning or Its End?

A year on, FP asks experts to assess the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Analysis
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, M.L. deRaismes Combes, Dana El Kurd, Marwan Muasher, John Nagl, Amit Segal, Hagar Shezaf
Columns of pale gray smoke rise from a building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, leveled to the ground now. Intact midrise buildings loom beyond the plumes of smoke, and a closer, lower building is silhouetted as a black shadow against the smoke.
Columns of pale gray smoke rise from a building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, leveled to the ground now. Intact midrise buildings loom beyond the plumes of smoke, and a closer, lower building is silhouetted as a black shadow against the smoke.

The U.N. Resolution at the Heart of the Israel-Lebanon Conflict

U.N. Resolution 1701 was a great idea—if only Lebanon had been able to curb Hezbollah.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smile as they stand side-by-side in the Oval Office in front of framed photos of former presidents, including Abraham Lincoln. Both men wear dark suits and ties.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smile as they stand side-by-side in the Oval Office in front of framed photos of former presidents, including Abraham Lincoln. Both men wear dark suits and ties.

Don’t Blame Biden for the Yearlong War in Gaza

Yes, the United States has leverage—but not like you think.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller, Lauren Morganbesser
Hezbollah fighters line up at the funerals of commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Mahmoud Hamad, both killed in an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, on Sept. 22.
Hezbollah fighters line up at the funerals of commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Mahmoud Hamad, both killed in an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, on Sept. 22.

Hezbollah Is Still Capable of Getting Revenge on Israel

Even after taking damage, the group still has unconventional military means of its own.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Mourners carry the caskets, covered in yellow cloth, and signs depicting the images of Hezbollah members Ibrahim Sharaf al-Din, Muhammad Hussein Ali Rabah, and Hussein Ali Majid in Beirut.
Mourners carry the caskets, covered in yellow cloth, and signs depicting the images of Hezbollah members Ibrahim Sharaf al-Din, Muhammad Hussein Ali Rabah, and Hussein Ali Majid in Beirut.

Can Israel Kill Its Way to Victory Over Hezbollah?

The group has been degraded but can still inflict serious harm.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A woman in a headscarf and dark dress sits on steps with her head in her arms crying.
A woman in a headscarf and dark dress sits on steps with her head in her arms crying.

How Beirut Reacted to Nasrallah’s Death

After Hezbollah confirmed its leader had been killed in an Israeli airstrike, all hell broke loose in the streets.

Report
Stefanie Glinski
An Iraqi demonstrator holds a picture of Hassan Nasrallah, late leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in Baghdad on Sept. 28.
An Iraqi demonstrator holds a picture of Hassan Nasrallah, late leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in Baghdad on Sept. 28.

Charisma and Militancy Powered Nasrallah’s Rise, but He Became One More Corrupt Warlord

The Hezbollah leader’s death will not bring lasting peace for Israel.

Analysis
Thanassis Cambanis
Smoke billows from Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.
Smoke billows from Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.

Hezbollah Leader Killed in Israeli Airstrike, Group Confirms

Hassan Nasrallah’s death marks a dramatic escalation in Israel’s campaign against the militant group.

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch
Young people march with large portraits depicting Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Young people march with large portraits depicting Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Pinpoint Israeli Intelligence Enabled Strike on Nasrallah in Lebanon

Israel killed the Hezbollah leader, capping a series of stunning operations.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
Northbound traffic is seen backed up heading into Beirut, with southbound lanes largely empty. Buildings frame either side of the roadway.
Northbound traffic is seen backed up heading into Beirut, with southbound lanes largely empty. Buildings frame either side of the roadway.

With Israel’s Airstrikes, Beirut Plunges Into Panic

One family flees their village in the south for uncertain refuge in the capital.

Report
Stefanie Glinski
A mushroom cloud of pale gray smoke billows up against a hazy sky from mid-rise buildings in a neighborhood of a densely constructed town.
A mushroom cloud of pale gray smoke billows up against a hazy sky from mid-rise buildings in a neighborhood of a densely constructed town.

Will Hezbollah Choose to Keep Its Word—or Its Arsenal?

The militant group must decide between walking back its threat to northern Israel or risking the loss of its advanced missile capabilities.

Analysis
Hanin Ghaddar
People watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a cafe at the entrance of the Sabra camp for Palestinian refugees in Beirut.
People watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a cafe at the entrance of the Sabra camp for Palestinian refugees in Beirut.

The Beeper Balance Sheet

The stunning attacks are a setback for Hezbollah but raise risks for Israel.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
People gather at the entrance of the American University of Beirut Medical Center.
People gather at the entrance of the American University of Beirut Medical Center.

The Biggest Question About the Hezbollah Pager Attack Is Why Now

A technically adroit strike could be a curtain-raiser for an expanded conflict.

Analysis
Colin P. Clarke
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