Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

Putin, in a black suit and purple tie, holds a champagne flute.
Putin, in a black suit and purple tie, holds a champagne flute.

Trump’s Russia Sanctions Are Really Putting the Hurt On

He was late to the show, but he brought a big stick.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
The first batch of the Ukrainian-made drone missile "Peklo" is shown before its delivery to the Ukrainian military in Kyiv on Dec. 6, 2024.
The first batch of the Ukrainian-made drone missile "Peklo" is shown before its delivery to the Ukrainian military in Kyiv on Dec. 6, 2024.

A Complacent Pentagon Needs to Learn From Ukraine

The Europeans are deeply engaged with Kyiv on defense technology, but Washington is lagging behind.

Analysis
Christian Caryl
A Patriot air defense system protects an airport used for weapons deliveries to Ukraine in Jasionka, Poland, on March 6.
A Patriot air defense system protects an airport used for weapons deliveries to Ukraine in Jasionka, Poland, on March 6.

How to Get More U.S. Weapons to Ukraine

Opening Europe’s 150 billion euro defense fund to U.S. companies could seal the deal. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Bart M. J. Szewczyk
A blond woman in a black suit sits behind a sign with her last name on it. The EU flag is seen behind her.
A blond woman in a black suit sits behind a sign with her last name on it. The EU flag is seen behind her.

Ukraine’s New U.S. Ambassador Previews Her Pragmatic Approach to Washington

“I am Ukrainian, right? I’m not a Democrat or Republican.”

Interview
Sam Skove
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Maria Semyonova, wife of a Russian soldier, poses in front of a recruitment poster in Moscow on December 17, 2023.
Maria Semyonova, wife of a Russian soldier, poses in front of a recruitment poster in Moscow on December 17, 2023.

How to Fight Putin on the Information Battlefield

The West can’t fully adopt Russia’s methods—but it should study them. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Peter Pomerantsev, Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

Battlefield Strategy

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there’s a loophole in the West’s sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Ukrainian soldiers hold the Ukrainian and Lithuanian flags over the coffin of Tomas Valentelis, a Lithuanian volunteer in the Ukrainian army who was killed in battle in Ukraine, at a funeral ceremony in Kyiv on April 16.
Ukrainian soldiers hold the Ukrainian and Lithuanian flags over the coffin of Tomas Valentelis, a Lithuanian volunteer in the Ukrainian army who was killed in battle in Ukraine, at a funeral ceremony in Kyiv on April 16.

To Deter Russia, Europe Needs Ukraine

A Ukraine-Baltics defense pact would bring Kyiv into Europe’s security architecture.

Argument
Fredrik Wesslau
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

Two men sit at control boards inside the control room at a nuclear missile base outside Moscow.
Two men sit at control boards inside the control room at a nuclear missile base outside Moscow.

Prigozhin’s Failed Coup Was a Blessing in Disguise

In times of political instability, Washington prefers the nuclear devil it knows.

Argument
Christopher Clary, Joshua Shifrinson
Anders-Fogh-Rasmussen-FPLive-Site-3-2
Anders-Fogh-Rasmussen-FPLive-Site-3-2

Anders Fogh Rasmussen: ‘Putin Has Exploited Our Hesitation’

NATO’s former secretary-general on the case for arming Ukraine and what to expect at the Vilnius summit.

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg shake hands after a joint news conference in Kyiv on April 20.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg shake hands after a joint news conference in Kyiv on April 20.

2 Options to Prevent the Next Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Will it be NATO membership or the Israel model?

Shadow Government
Peter D. Feaver
Ukrainian soldiers fire a M777 howitzer toward Russian positions on the front line in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a M777 howitzer toward Russian positions on the front line in eastern Ukraine.

Biden Set to OK Cluster Munitions for Ukraine

The decision to send the controversial weapons comes after months of knife fights within the U.S. administration.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a virtual trilateral meeting to discuss the topic of Syria with the leaders of Iran and Turkey.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a virtual trilateral meeting to discuss the topic of Syria with the leaders of Iran and Turkey.

The Wagner Mutiny Could Strengthen Iran in Syria

Putin faces a choice between punishing Prigozhin and ceding influence and territory to Tehran.

Analysis
Jeremy Hodge
Russian military officer Sergei Rudskoy sits below a map of Syria screened during a briefing at the headquarters of the Russian defense ministry in Moscow.
Russian military officer Sergei Rudskoy sits below a map of Syria screened during a briefing at the headquarters of the Russian defense ministry in Moscow.

The Putin-Prigozhin Fight Now Has a Syrian Battlefield

The Kremlin is trying to take control of the Wagner Group’s Middle Eastern empire.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
A colorized print depicts Bohemian mercenary General Albrecht Wenzel von Wallenstein, wearing a hat with a feather, thigh-high boots, and lace cuffs and collar as he rides atop a bearded man wearing a tall furry hat as though he were a horse. Marauding soldiers are seen in the background landscape of houses and castles.
A colorized print depicts Bohemian mercenary General Albrecht Wenzel von Wallenstein, wearing a hat with a feather, thigh-high boots, and lace cuffs and collar as he rides atop a bearded man wearing a tall furry hat as though he were a horse. Marauding soldiers are seen in the background landscape of houses and castles.

Prigozhin Should Study Europe’s Greatest Mercenary

Albrecht von Wallenstein was the Holy Roman Empire’s power broker—until he clashed with his superior.

Argument
Lucian Staiano-Daniels
Members of Russia's Wagner Group, including one soldier riding atop a tank, prepare to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don.
Members of Russia's Wagner Group, including one soldier riding atop a tank, prepare to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don.

Is Revolt in Russia Good for America?

The Wagner Group’s short-lived mutiny seems to have weakened Putin—but that isn’t necessarily a win for Washington.

It's Debatable
Emma Ashford, Matthew Kroenig
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu walk to watch military exercises in Leningrad oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu walk to watch military exercises in Leningrad oblast.

Adam Tooze: How Putin Overstretched His Military in Ukraine

Last weekend’s mutiny was partly the product of a mismanaged authoritarian state.

Insider
Cameron Abadi
A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile that can deliver multiple nuclear warheads sits on a Moscow street during the rehearsal for a Victory Day parade on May 7. A soldier in fatigues stands in the foreground with tall buildings in the distance.
A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile that can deliver multiple nuclear warheads sits on a Moscow street during the rehearsal for a Victory Day parade on May 7. A soldier in fatigues stands in the foreground with tall buildings in the distance.

Russia’s Nukes Are Probably Secure From Rogue Actors

Moscow has a tight command-and-control system—but there’s always a risk.

Analysis
Christopher David LaRoche, Kirill Shamiev
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reach out to shake hands, against a backdrop of Russian and Chinese flags, at the Kremlin in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reach out to shake hands, against a backdrop of Russian and Chinese flags, at the Kremlin in Moscow.

Xi’s Schadenfreude Over Moscow’s Mutiny

Xi feels vindicated over Putin’s style of governance—but has made a bad bet on the Russian leader.

Argument
Craig Singleton
A member of the Wagner Group stands guard with a rifle in front of a large stucco building flying a Russian flag against a blue sky. The guard wears a green helmet and uniform along with a camouflage face covering.
A member of the Wagner Group stands guard with a rifle in front of a large stucco building flying a Russian flag against a blue sky. The guard wears a green helmet and uniform along with a camouflage face covering.

Wagner Mutiny Rattles the Kremlin’s War in Ukraine

With its good fighters out of the picture, Russia’s manpower problems get worse.

Insider
Jack Detsch
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Russia’s Periphery Takes Note of Putin’s Sudden Weakness

In Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Wagner rebellion has exposed Russia’s fragility.

Analysis
Daniel B. Baer
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Russian public, as seen on screens in Moscow on June 24.
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Russian public, as seen on screens in Moscow on June 24.

Putin’s Strongman Image Suddenly Unravels for Russians

His mishandling of the revolt puts him in the spotlight—and Russians don’t like what they see.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a 70-year-old man wearing a black suit and tie, leans forward with his hands on the table in front of him as he speaks into a microphone.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a 70-year-old man wearing a black suit and tie, leans forward with his hands on the table in front of him as he speaks into a microphone.

Putin’s Stability Was Always a Myth

Prigozhin’s revolt has exposed the rotten foundations of a mafia state.

Argument
Natalia Antonova
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is surrounded by by members of Congress as he carries a U.S. flag in a triangular box following his address at the Capitol in Washington on Dec. 21, 2022.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is surrounded by by members of Congress as he carries a U.S. flag in a triangular box following his address at the Capitol in Washington on Dec. 21, 2022.

Congress Presses Biden to Deliver Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

Lawmakers from both parties want Ukraine to have the tools to root out entrenched Russian occupiers.

Report
Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer
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