Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

Putin, in a black suit and purple tie, holds a champagne flute.
Putin, in a black suit and purple tie, holds a champagne flute.

Trump’s Russia Sanctions Are Really Putting the Hurt On

He was late to the show, but he brought a big stick.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
The first batch of the Ukrainian-made drone missile "Peklo" is shown before its delivery to the Ukrainian military in Kyiv on Dec. 6, 2024.
The first batch of the Ukrainian-made drone missile "Peklo" is shown before its delivery to the Ukrainian military in Kyiv on Dec. 6, 2024.

A Complacent Pentagon Needs to Learn From Ukraine

The Europeans are deeply engaged with Kyiv on defense technology, but Washington is lagging behind.

Analysis
Christian Caryl
A Patriot air defense system protects an airport used for weapons deliveries to Ukraine in Jasionka, Poland, on March 6.
A Patriot air defense system protects an airport used for weapons deliveries to Ukraine in Jasionka, Poland, on March 6.

How to Get More U.S. Weapons to Ukraine

Opening Europe’s 150 billion euro defense fund to U.S. companies could seal the deal. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Bart M. J. Szewczyk
A blond woman in a black suit sits behind a sign with her last name on it. The EU flag is seen behind her.
A blond woman in a black suit sits behind a sign with her last name on it. The EU flag is seen behind her.

Ukraine’s New U.S. Ambassador Previews Her Pragmatic Approach to Washington

“I am Ukrainian, right? I’m not a Democrat or Republican.”

Interview
Sam Skove
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Maria Semyonova, wife of a Russian soldier, poses in front of a recruitment poster in Moscow on December 17, 2023.
Maria Semyonova, wife of a Russian soldier, poses in front of a recruitment poster in Moscow on December 17, 2023.

How to Fight Putin on the Information Battlefield

The West can’t fully adopt Russia’s methods—but it should study them. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Peter Pomerantsev, Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

Battlefield Strategy

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there’s a loophole in the West’s sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Ukrainian soldiers hold the Ukrainian and Lithuanian flags over the coffin of Tomas Valentelis, a Lithuanian volunteer in the Ukrainian army who was killed in battle in Ukraine, at a funeral ceremony in Kyiv on April 16.
Ukrainian soldiers hold the Ukrainian and Lithuanian flags over the coffin of Tomas Valentelis, a Lithuanian volunteer in the Ukrainian army who was killed in battle in Ukraine, at a funeral ceremony in Kyiv on April 16.

To Deter Russia, Europe Needs Ukraine

A Ukraine-Baltics defense pact would bring Kyiv into Europe’s security architecture.

Argument
Fredrik Wesslau
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

An Orthodox priest collects fallen religious objects as others clear up glass and debris inside Holy Intercession Cathedral following a Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Oct. 18, 2023.
An Orthodox priest collects fallen religious objects as others clear up glass and debris inside Holy Intercession Cathedral following a Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Oct. 18, 2023.

After Centuries, Ukraine Cuts Religious Ties With Russia

But implementing the new ban on Russia-linked churches could get messy.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves a concert in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves a concert in Moscow.

The Art of Punishing Putin

A new book offers a masterful glimpse into the world of economic warfare.

Review
Keith Johnson
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023.

Biden’s ‘Escalation Management’ in Ukraine Makes the West Less Safe

Washington should abandon a failed approach to Moscow that does not learn or self-adjust.

Argument
Edward Hunter Christie
Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets of the Polish Air Force take part in a NATO shielding exercise at Lask Air Base, Poland, on Oct. 12, 2022.
Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets of the Polish Air Force take part in a NATO shielding exercise at Lask Air Base, Poland, on Oct. 12, 2022.

NATO Frontline States Need an Air Defense Shield Now

Russia is probing NATO with attack drones and missiles. Ignoring them is a dangerous option.

Argument
Fredrik Wesslau
Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, visits the Trinity Lavra of St. Sergius in Sergiyev Posad near Moscow on June 26.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, visits the Trinity Lavra of St. Sergius in Sergiyev Posad near Moscow on June 26.

Russia Is No Conservative Haven

The Western populist right has fallen for Vladimir Putin’s latest propaganda ploy.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sits in the Oval Office during a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, on Sept. 21, 2023.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sits in the Oval Office during a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, on Sept. 21, 2023.

Ukraine Needs a New Storyline

The Kursk offensive suggests a new strategy for victory—but it will require the West to change some policies.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during a high-level U.N. Security Council meeting.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during a high-level U.N. Security Council meeting.

Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet as War Reaches Critical Juncture

The shake-up comes ahead of Zelensky’s key visit to the United States.

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch
A depiction of The Battle of Crecy during the Hundred Years War.
A depiction of The Battle of Crecy during the Hundred Years War.

How the Hundred Years’ War Explains Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia

Three battles in medieval and early modern Europe offer instructive parallels to Ukraine’s Kursk offensive.

Analysis
Lucian Staiano-Daniels
A cyclist passes the Freedom Monument during at a photo exhibition showing historical pictures of the Baltic Way human chain.
A cyclist passes the Freedom Monument during at a photo exhibition showing historical pictures of the Baltic Way human chain.

History Shows Giving Land to Russia Won’t Bring Peace

The long record of Russian and Soviet occupations does not bode well for negotiations.

Analysis
Kristi Raik
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (C), with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (L) and U.S. President Joe Biden (R), attends a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council during the NATO 75th anniversary summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (C), with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (L) and U.S. President Joe Biden (R), attends a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council during the NATO 75th anniversary summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C.

Biden’s Ukraine Strategy Is Missing in Action

Lawmakers are frustrated at the lack of a coherent plan as Biden prepares to leave office.

Report
Jack Detsch, Amy Mackinnon
Two Russian Orthodox priests are seen from behind, wearing ankle-length black robes, as they watch black smoke filling the sky above a dry field. A few fire trucks and other vehicles are lined up next to the priests.
Two Russian Orthodox priests are seen from behind, wearing ankle-length black robes, as they watch black smoke filling the sky above a dry field. A few fire trucks and other vehicles are lined up next to the priests.

Kyiv Keeps Russian Oil in the Crosshairs

The pinprick attacks boost morale, but they don’t much dent Moscow’s energy earnings.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to watch the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in Moscow on May 9, 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to watch the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in Moscow on May 9, 2022.

In Russia, Ukraine’s Invasion Pops Putin’s Bubbles

After years of propaganda about the existential threat from Ukraine, Russians respond with a collective shrug.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A road sign reads Kursk in English and Cyrillic, with the number 108 next to it. Green grass and trees surround the sign.
A road sign reads Kursk in English and Cyrillic, with the number 108 next to it. Green grass and trees surround the sign.

What Does Zelensky Want in Kursk?

Ukraine’s strategic objectives remain murky—and the operation creates many risks—but it could alter the course of the war.

Analysis
John R. Deni
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks alongside U.S. President Joe Biden during a Ukraine Compact initiative on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., on July 11.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks alongside U.S. President Joe Biden during a Ukraine Compact initiative on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., on July 11.

Washington Is Out of Sync With Its Wartime Allies

The White House has been kept out of the loop on several major wartime decisions by Israel and Ukraine.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Amy Mackinnon
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past a destroyed border checkpoint amid Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, on Aug. 14.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past a destroyed border checkpoint amid Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, on Aug. 14.

The Geopolitical Opportunity of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

The incursion shows Washington the way to a smarter pivot to Asia.

Shadow Government
A. Wess Mitchell
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past the remains of another in the Sumy region, Ukraine, amid the Ukrainian incursion into neighboring Kursk, Russia, on Aug. 13.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past the remains of another in the Sumy region, Ukraine, amid the Ukrainian incursion into neighboring Kursk, Russia, on Aug. 13.

Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Is a Turning Point in the War

The biggest impact is the destruction of Vladimir Putin’s narrative for victory.

Argument
Carl Bildt
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