Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a meeting with the U.S. vice president at his office in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.

The War Is Over for Israel, but the Accounting Has Yet to Begin

Will voters settle the score with Bibi—or double down on him?

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.

As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

If Trump wants peace, he must block Israel’s annexationist policies. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.
Spanish soldiers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stand guard at the entrance of their base near the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh, 18 September 2006.

The Desperate Search for Gaza Peacekeepers

Most of the world seems very eager to avoid joining the territory’s international stabilization force.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.
Two men hold up clear boxes. One looks through the box, another tilts it on its side. In front of them is a dais with a microphone. Behind them red drapes.

Sharaa’s Democratic Test

The Syrian president, who visits the White House on Monday, just oversaw his first election.

Dispatch
Fin de Pencier
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.
Two low white cylinders are set on the ground, each with a miniature ladder running up its side. In the background is a large industrial room with a collection of scaffolding and metal pipes.

The Iran Challenge Is Big. The Solution Must Be Bigger.

A regional nuclear condominium can bring security and prosperity to all sides of the Gulf.

Argument
Ernest J. Moniz
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.
US President Donald Trump welcomes leaders at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, on October 13.

The U.N. Must Help Consolidate Gaza Peace

Trump should seek a Security Council resolution to bolster his peace plan and preempt spoilers.

Argument
Frank Lowenstein, Liam Hamama

Israel-Hamas War

Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.
Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.

What We Can Learn From Trump’s Success in Gaza

In diplomacy, style now matters just as much as substance. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Suzanne Nossel
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.

Two Ways Oct. 7 Changed Israel and One Way It Didn’t

The impact will be felt for years, even if Trump’s peace plan succeeds.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.

Can Palestinians Trust Donald Trump?

Only U.S. pressure will ensure that Israel honors the Gaza cease-fire.

Analysis
Omar H. Rahman
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.

Two Years After Oct. 7, a Trail of What-Ifs

Decisions made early on set the path for a devastating war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi

Israel and Hezbollah

Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.
Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.

Hezbollah Is Weak Enough for Lebanon to Finally Disarm It

The government and army are taking back their own country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji

Regional Dynamics

President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.
President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.

America’s Accidental New Military Ally

The Trump administration has made an unprecedentedly sloppy security guarantee to Qatar.

Analysis
Bilal Y. Saab
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.

Ankara’s New Syrian Headache

Toppling Assad didn’t solve Turkey’s problems—it made them worse.

Analysis
Gonul Tol
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.
A municipal worker hoists flags of various countries near Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport on Oct. 11.

Can the Gulf Rebuild the Middle East?

Despite many threats, the Gulf states have emerged with structural advantages that could reshape the region.

Analysis
Rob Geist Pinfold
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.

Buying the Hatchet

How arms deals are helping Sharaa to make up with Moscow.

Analysis
Ahmad Sharawi

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.

How Washington’s Israel-Palestine Peace Process Theology Failed Again and Again

Trump’s plan is just the latest example.

Review
Khaled Elgindy

Latest Stories

A double exposure portrait of a man with glasses in a suit against a blue sky with the edge of a beige brick building at right. The man is in his 30s, bald, and wears a dark suit with a tie.
A double exposure portrait of a man with glasses in a suit against a blue sky with the edge of a beige brick building at right. The man is in his 30s, bald, and wears a dark suit with a tie.

A Palestinian Who Holds Many Truths

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib has emerged as a voice of unique clarity in the zero-sum debate over Israel-Palestine.

Profile
Amy Mackinnon
A Houthi fighter guards the Galaxy Leader vessel on the Red Sea coast off Hudaydah, Yemen.
A Houthi fighter guards the Galaxy Leader vessel on the Red Sea coast off Hudaydah, Yemen.

A Year of War Has Left the Middle East Less Stable

Disorder and instability reign from Gaza to Syria and the Red Sea.

5 Top Reads
Sasha Polakow-Suransky
People stand atop a tank holding a Syrian flag adn celebrating with their arms raised.
People stand atop a tank holding a Syrian flag adn celebrating with their arms raised.

Assad’s Fall Is the Middle East’s 1989

One of many consequences is the demise of Iran’s self-styled Axis of Resistance.

Analysis
Lina Khatib
An anti-government fighter tears down a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Nov. 30.
An anti-government fighter tears down a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Nov. 30.

What the Fall of Aleppo Means for Russia

A lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy.

Analysis
Hamidreza Azizi, Nicole Grajewski
A protestor wearing a keffiyeh and a shirt that reads "LIBERATE PALESTINE" holds her hands up (which are covered in red). Her cheeks are also striped in red.
A protestor wearing a keffiyeh and a shirt that reads "LIBERATE PALESTINE" holds her hands up (which are covered in red). Her cheeks are also striped in red.

Biden Didn’t Really Try to End the War in Gaza

U.S.-led diplomatic talks were essentially a performance, doomed from the outset.

Argument
Nathan J. Robinson
An attack helicopter cuts across a blue sky dotted with fluffy wisps of clouds. Four large birds also fly across the sky beneath the helicopter, their wingspans stretched wide in flight.
An attack helicopter cuts across a blue sky dotted with fluffy wisps of clouds. Four large birds also fly across the sky beneath the helicopter, their wingspans stretched wide in flight.

5 Questions About the Cease-Fire Between Israel and Hezbollah

Limited strikes could continue even after the truce.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A protester dressed as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and another dressed as U.S. President Donald Trump demonstrate outside the White House on Oct. 19, 2018, in the wake of the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
A protester dressed as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and another dressed as U.S. President Donald Trump demonstrate outside the White House on Oct. 19, 2018, in the wake of the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Why the Gulf States Might Feature Prominently in Trump’s Foreign Policy

One likely goal: expanding the Abraham Accords.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller, Lauren Morganbesser
Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.
Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.

The U.S. Must Support Gaza Before Winter

Seasonal rains and flooding portend further humanitarian catastrophe.

Argument
Sarah E. Parkinson, Feroze Sidhwa
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.

What Biden Must Do to Help Gaza Now

The outgoing administration has one last chance to do the right thing.

Argument
Stacy Gilbert
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.

Will Tehran Make a Dash for the Bomb?

With other components of its defense strategy in tatters, attention turns to Iran’s nuclear threshold capability.

Analysis
Sina Azodi
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.

What Israel’s Attack on Iran Means for the Region

This week’s strikes could draw a line in the sand—or set the stage for a bigger offensive.

Analysis
Rishi Iyengar
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.

Sinwar’s Death Gives Bibi a Boost—but Not Much More

A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas remains far off.

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Hamas leader Sinwar
Hamas leader Sinwar

Why Sinwar’s Death Matters

The Hamas leader’s demise closes the first act of the war and sets up what comes next.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.

Israel’s Killing of Yahya Sinwar Is Not a Turning Point

While the Hamas leader’s death represents a political victory for Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is no closer to a realistic plan for governing Gaza.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.

Biden’s ‘Bear Hug’ of Israel Is a Failure

The administration’s unwavering support has brought the Middle East to the brink of all-out war.

Analysis
Khaled Elgindy
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

Tehran was in a stronger strategic position before its proxies plunged the region into war.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
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